2023: demand and recovery gathered pace
Dubai recorded another strong year as international demand, population growth, tourism and investor confidence supported transactions and pricing. Abu Dhabi also saw increasing residential demand and a growing off-plan pipeline. Performance varied by neighbourhood and property type.
2024: prices and transactions remained strong
The IMF’s 2025 UAE Article IV report noted Dubai residential prices rose 13.3% in 2024, with villa prices rising faster than apartments. It reported Abu Dhabi apartment sale prices increased 9.9% and villa prices 7.8% in 2024. These are historical figures and should not be treated as a forecast.
2025: record transaction values in key markets
ADREC reported AED 142 billion in Abu Dhabi real estate transactions across 42,814 transactions in 2025, a 48% increase in value over 2024. Dubai’s government reported more than AED 917 billion in real estate transactions in 2025, up 20% year on year. These totals measure transaction activity, not guaranteed capital gains for individual owners.
2026: strong activity, but pay attention to supply
ADREC’s H1 2026 report recorded AED 117 billion in total transactions and reported 71,000 additional residential units projected by 2030, with deliveries expected to peak in 2028. That makes project quality, handover timing, competing supply and rental demand important considerations.
2027–2029: what could shape the next three years?
A reasonable base case is continued development and investment, alongside more variation between locations and assets as new supply is delivered. Infrastructure, population and employment growth, financing costs, rental affordability, construction delivery and regulatory changes may influence outcomes. A large pipeline could moderate price or rent growth in some segments, while well-located, differentiated assets may remain more resilient. This is an outlook, not a prediction or promise.
What should investors do?
Use current comparable transactions and rental evidence, test yields after service charges and finance costs, check supply due in the same community, verify project registration and payment protections, and avoid buying solely because a market-wide chart is rising. Revisit assumptions before each purchase.